By Seth Herrold
I have written a lot of columns in this space about Royals’ outfielder Alex Gordon. Well folks… here is another one.
While Gordon is most-likely my favorite athlete in the sports universe, he is also one of the most captivating figures in baseball today. His career has been a roller coaster ride worthy of a big budget movie, assuming the Royals get a World Series win before his career runs out. That, along with the fact he is my favorite player, is what gets him so many appearances in the “Play Of The Week” column.
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This year, coming off a gold glove season and an equally exciting year at the plate, I have high hopes for Gordon. A lot of Royals fans do, but it’s hard to find many outside Royals Nation who believe in the former first-round draft pick as I do. Every year ESPN.com comes out with rankings for baseball players for their fantasy baseball league. Gordon is ranked as the 20th best outfielder in baseball after being the 24th best player overall in the ESPN ratings at the end of last season. The website also gives “expert analysis” of each player and, in short, here is the book on Gordon:
“Drafting Gordon expecting a repeat of last season’s batting average and No. 24 ranking on the ESPN Player Rater is dangerous.”
The “experts” also put out projected numbers on each player and for Gordon they have him scoring 95 runs, a good total but still six shy of his 2011 tally; 21 home runs, down two from last season; 77 RBIs, down 10 from last season; 14 steals, down three from last season; and a .267 batting average, a whopping 36 points off his .303 average from last season.
These projections, the batting average especially, are an insult and I’m not the only one who took notice. Royals hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, the man who rebuilt Alex Gordon’s swing and turned him into the monster hitter he was last season, has also expressed displeasure with the masses projecting Gordon’s average to plunge back into the .260’s.
“It fires me up when I read stuff that says Gordo is projected to be a .270 hitter,” Seitzer said. “I’m like, ‘Project all you want. This kid is just scratching the surface of what he can do.’ ”
This past off-season I worked a fantasy baseball trade with Trenton Head football Coach Wes Croy in which I sent him Miguel Cabrerra, the number-one ranked player in baseball according to ESPN.com, for a package of three players, one being Alex Gordon. The other guys in the league were all congratulating Wes on the deal. Despite the fact everyone thought I got the short end of the stick, I was quietly pleased with the deal. You see, outside of Wes and myself, the other players in this league come from as far away as California. They are in the group of non-believers who take ESPN’s word as a God-written commandment. If they say Gordon will hit .267, then that is just what he will hit.
I know better, though. I have my own projections for Gordon and they are much more realistic. I say he hits over .300 again. And doing so at the leadoff spot, where he will bat all season. With guys like Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer batting behind him, he will score well over 100 runs. This offense is deadly you guys. I will also predict Gordon is a 20-20 player this year, hitting over 20 home runs and stealing over 20 bases. With Lorenzo Cain hitting near the bottom of the order, his RBI opportunities will also increase. I see 90 RBIs as a real possibility.
So how do I back those numbers up? Let’s look at Gordon’s spring numbers so far. He is hitting .405 with two home runs and 11 RBIs in 16 games. That projects out to 111 RBIs and 20 homers over a 162-game season. He also has four doubles, 27 total bases and his on-base plus slugging percentage is 1.103.
These are big numbers and it tells me one thing: Gordon isn’t going to regress. If anything, he is going to continue to be the player he was last season. Like Seitzer said, he’s just scratching the surface.
